Tuesday, December 13, 2011

November 2011 Retail Sales

Retail sales for November were reported this morning slightly worse than expectations up 0.2% m/m.  The margin for error on the survey is +/- 0.5% so there is a probability that retail sales were actually lower in November.  Monthly highlights were electronics and appliance stores, which were up 2.1% and non-store retailers which were up 1.5%.  Y/Y retail sales were up a healthy 6.7% led by autos which were up 8.1% y/y.

Headline retail sales data is reported on a nominal basis.  The inflation adjusted data tells a slightly different story.  The divergence of nominal and real data is shown below.  Real retail sales are still below their 07 peak.

Index (100=1992)

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